China pulls the entire sale opening period

The 3.1% global increase was largely due to China. Counterpoint gives two reasons. First, the initial source of goods in China is more abundant this year, so people who want to buy soon have machines to buy. Second, the prices of competing high-end Android models there have increased, so the price gap between the iPhone Pro and the top Android devices has narrowed.

I find the second reason quite remarkable. Buyers in China already have many powerful, well-priced Android options. When those devices go up in price, the difference compared to the iPhone is no longer much, and many people will choose the iPhone.

In the US, buyers see little change in the device

In the US, on the contrary, sales decreased by 4%. According to Counterpoint, buyers here feel that the features and design of the 18 Pro have not changed much enough, even though the device has a variable aperture camera. This year Apple also increased the starting price in the US by 100 USD, the Pro version is now 1,199 USD and the Pro Max is 1,299 USD.

At that price, anyone using an iPhone 17 Pro or a slightly older model will have to wonder if the difference is worth it. If the design and features are not much different from the previous generation, as US buyers are feeling, the new price will be even more difficult to convince.

Japan decreased the most because of prices and exchange rates

Japan is the place with the deepest decrease, up to 27%. Counterpoint believes that the exchange rate has made price increases in Japan worse. That is, in addition to Apple increasing prices, the weak yen makes selling prices in Japan even higher. In a market where the iPhone is very popular, this reduction shows that the price has reached the tolerance limit of many people.

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I think Japan's case is also a reminder for buyers in Vietnam. The price of a genuine device also depends on the original price and exchange rate. When both increase, buyers will consider longer, or wait for the device to price again.

Pro or Pro Max, buyers in Asia are leaning towards the small version

A small detail that I find very interesting. The proportion of Pro Max version in total sales of the two devices decreased from 57% to 56%. Counterpoint said the reason is that growth in India and Southeast Asia is skewed towards the smaller version, i.e. 18 Pro.

The 1% difference isn't much, but it shows that in my area, not everyone defaults to Pro Max anymore. In the US, the difference between the two versions is 100 USD. If you mainly take photos, surf the internet and do daily work, the Pro version is more compact, easier to hold in one hand and cheaper. Pro Max is more suitable for people who need a large screen to watch movies or play games for a long time. I think I should go to the store and try both before deciding, because the feeling of holding each person is different.

So is this year's iPhone worth upgrading

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In my opinion, the answer depends on the device you are using. If you are using the 17 Pro, the most noticeable new feature on the 18 Pro is the variable aperture camera, and according to Counterpoint, that is not enough for many US buyers to change devices. If you are using a device that is several years old, the gap with the new model will be larger, and this is a more reasonable time to change the device.

The Pro version is only really worth the money when you use all the extras it has.

Will iPhone Duo take away customers from Pro Max

There is one thing to keep in mind when reading these numbers. Counterpoint collects data before the iPhone Duo goes on sale, October 23. That means the first 3 weeks of sales of the 18 Pro and 18 Pro Max have not been affected by Apple's first folding iPhone.

Counterpoint said they are watching to see if Duo will bring new buyers to Apple, or will take away customers from Pro Max. I think both possibilities exist. Those who like big screens and want something new will most likely switch to Duo instead of Pro Max. But we have to wait for the data after Duo opens for sale to know which side has more.

What should I watch out for in the next few weeks

The data for the first 3 weeks is just a short slice. What I want to see next is that after Duo, the Pro Max rate will continue to decrease, and whether China will be able to maintain the increase when the supply in other countries is more stable.

For buyers in Vietnam, I think there is no need to rush. If the device you're using is still fine, just wait a few more weeks for the price to stabilize and for more long-term reviews of both the 18 Pro and Duo. If you need to change your device immediately, you should choose the Pro or Pro Max version according to the feeling of holding and real needs, not according to screen size or price.

Which iPhone model are you using, and this year are you planning to upgrade to 18 Pro, Pro Max or wait for Duo?

Source: MacRumors, Counterpoint Research